Kpler ship tracking data shows that in September 2024, Russia's seaborne coal exports amounted to 10,854,600 tons, down 16.29% sequentially and 30.21% year-on-year. So far this year, Russian coal exports have been hampered by China's resumption of import tariffs on coal, Russia's export tariffs on coal, falling global prices, Western sanctions on Russia, disruptions in buyer settlements, low railroad capacity, and rising costs for Russian coal producers.

In terms of destinations, Russia exported 5.0260 million tons of seaborne coal to mainland China in September, up 11.32% from a year earlier and down 16.22% year-on-year, accounting for 46% of Russia's total exports. Russian Energy Minister Sergey Tsivilyov (Sergey Tsivilyov) recently said in an interview at the Eastern Economic Forum, the first half of this year, Russia's coal exports to China fell 8% to 45.5 million tons, but the Russian Ministry of Energy expects that from next year onwards the supply will return to a level of at least 100 million tons. It was also reported that Russia and China are working on an intergovernmental agreement to supply 100 million tons of coal to China.

In addition, Russia exported 1,114,300 tons of seaborne coal to Turkey during the month, down 40.92% sequentially and 56.45% year-on-year; 904,400 tons to South Korea, down 50.20% sequentially and 50.15% year-on-year; 686,300 tons to India, down 57.60% sequentially and 56.32% year-on-year; and to Taiwan, China, exported 545,800 tons, down 13.51% from the ring, down 50.16% year-on-year.

It is reported that Russia intends to increase coal exports to India to meet India's growing demand for coal. Although China is still the largest export destination for Russian coal at this stage, Russian government sources said that Indian coal consumption could overtake China's by the beginning of the next decade as China's plan to cut coal for power generation advances.

Russian coal exports to Taiwan are expected to fall further as Taiwan Cement Corporation, one of Taiwan's two largest coal importers, announced the complete termination of its cooperation with Russian coal miners.

In January-September 2024, Russia's seaborne coal exports totaled 118 million tons, down 16.68% year-on-year. Given that the new U.S. sanctions currently cover about 50% of Russian coal exports, some analysts have suggested that Russia's coal exports may continue to decline in 2024 and 2025. However, according to Sergey Mochalnikov, Russia's Deputy Minister of Energy, at the Russian Energy Week, by 2050, Russian coal exports could exceed 350 million tons. Some data show that in 2023, Russian coal exports were about 213 million tons. Author: Ministry of Energy of Russia

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