NO.1 China Coal Transport and Marketing Association: In the first ten days of September, it focused on monitoring the sales volume of coal enterprises to increase month-on-month and decrease year-on-year.

China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association on September 21 issued a ten-day report on coal market scheduling in early September. In early September, the overall coal supply increased steadily, due to the continuous high temperature in the south, the high water and electricity levels fell, in the end of the peak summer, thermal coal consumption still maintained a high level, in addition to non-thermal coal users just need to be released, coupled with the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holiday approaching, downstream users also have inventory demand, focus on monitoring coal production, sales, railway traffic have increased. In the first half of September, the sales volume of key monitoring coal enterprises completed 54.22 million tons, an increase of 5.2% from the first half of August, down 1.2% year-on-year. In terms of major regions, the sales volume of key monitored coal enterprises in Shanxi Province decreased by 6.3% year-on-year, Inner Mongolia decreased by 3.8% year-on-year, Shaanxi Province decreased by 2.8% year-on-year, Henan Province decreased by 8.1% year-on-year, and Anhui Province increased by 3% year-on-year.

NO.2 Guotai Junan: Reproduced dividend attractive coal or usher in an inflection point.

Guotai Junan's research report pointed out that the performance pressure of the coal sector in the first half of 2024 has been basically released, and ROE is expected to bottom out in Q2-Q3. In the future, the periodicity of the coal industry will weaken, and the profit predictability and stability of the dividend leader will be enhanced. Recommended investment: 1) Leading with high profitability and stability; 2) Coal and electricity integrated target; 3) Long Association coking coal target; 4) Target of bottom recovery of performance. In 2024, the coal industry experienced the pressure test of the off-season and peak season, and the coal price remained resilient under the extreme supply and demand, and the daily consumption maintained the highest level in history. After July, the growth rate of thermal power turned positive, and the demand for non-thermal coal gradually increased. The performance of the head enterprise exceeded expectations, and the report showed that many enterprises increased dividends, and the dividend trend of the plate rose. Risks include weaker-than-expected downstream demand, falling steel prices and rising imports.

NO.3 Port coal prices rise again! Strong pre-node support.

After the Mid-Autumn Festival, new changes occurred in the coal market. As of September 19, "CCTD Bohai Rim thermal coal spot reference price" 5500K, 5000K, 4500K closed at 864, 766, 675 yuan/ton, up 5, 4, 7 yuan/ton. In late September, the demand for replenishment of power plants was released, and the demand for winter storage was gradually exerted. Affected by Typhoon "Prasang", the high temperature in the south is reduced, and the daily consumption of the power plant is reduced, but the number of days available for inventory is reduced, and the power plant will release part of the market coal purchase demand. The northern region began to reserve coal, and the demand for coal purchase in the non-electricity industry will increase slightly. Origin and port coal supply will operate at a low level, and coal prices are expected to be stable and strong before the National Day.

NO.4 In 2024, the kurtosis summer of Northwest trans-regional power supply reached a new high.

During the peak of the summer, the Northwest power grid sent 106.7 billion KWH of electricity, an increase of 9.2%, accounting for nearly half of the National power Grid company's cross-regional power supply. New energy exported 33.5 billion KWH of electricity, up 29% year on year, accounting for 31% of the total electricity exported. The Northwest Branch of the State Grid actively implemented the deployment of the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration and the State Grid Corporation on ensuring the supply of electricity in the summer of welcoming kurtosis, held a working meeting on the cooperation between government and enterprise and the network source for the 2024 summer of welcoming the kurtosis of the Northwest Power Grid, and fully tapped the cross-regional support potential on the basis of ensuring the supply in the region, and aroused the enthusiasm of all parties for power delivery. The innovative application of "energy for capacity" trading varieties has effectively supported the guaranteed power supply of 1.76 billion KWH in Qinghai during the peak summer through market means, and coordinated support for the maximum power supply of 1.3 million kW in Shaanxi during peak hours. In addition, the Northwest has delivered 1.4 billion KWH of green electricity across regions, and green electricity has been delivered to seven provinces (cities, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central government), including Beijing, Shanghai and Zhejiang.

NO.5 Commerce Department: Last week, the national coal price mainly rose.

According to the market operation monitoring system of the Ministry of Commerce, from September 9 to 15, the national coal prices mainly rose, of which No. 2 anthracite lump coal and thermal coal were 1,271 yuan and 827 yuan per ton, up 0.6% and 0.1% respectively; Coking coal was 1,185 yuan per ton, down 0.2%. Steel prices rose slightly, of which rebar, high-speed wire, hot rolled strip steel 3539 yuan per ton, 3721 yuan and 3654 yuan, up 0.7%, 0.5% and 0.4% respectively.

Article Source：IMIIA